[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 188/141

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            170/124

COMMENT: Shock observed in solar wind around 0307UT on 29 Nov. 
Solar wind remained elevated at near 540km/sec until around 10UT, 
afterwhich declining to around 480km/sec. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward 00-17UT. A 
type II radio sweep has been reported at 0629UT in association 
with a C9 xray flare. No coronal mass ejection imagery was available 
for possible associated CME assessment. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 29 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       39   4565 5323
      Darwin               39   4565 5323
      Townsville           38   4465 534-
      Learmonth            48   5565 6423
      Canberra             58   4676 5423
      Hobart               52   4575 6323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 NOV : 
      Darwin               72   (Active)
      Townsville           24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            104   (Major storm)
      Hobart              139   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        40
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             37   3365 6644     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
01 Dec    12    Unsettled 
02 Dec    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for interval 28-30 November. Major storm levels 
followed sudden impulse of 60nT at 0403UT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Poor-fair      Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 1605UT 24/11, Ended at 0025UT 2000/205
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Lower than normal MUfs may be experienced again today 
at mid to high latitudes. Polar region conditions improving with 
end of PCA. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
29 Nov   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov   110    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
01 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
02 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 27 November 
and is current for interval 28-30 November. Depressed ionospheric 
conditions due to overnight geomagnetic storm activity. Depressed 
conditions again expected for today southern Aus/NZ region. Some 
improvement is expected as day progresses as geomagnetic activity 
has eased. 


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