[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SN    1917UT  possible                  lower  East Pacific/
                                                   North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 185/138

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            185/138


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   2222 3222
      Darwin                7   2121 3223
      Townsville           13   ---- 422-
      Learmonth             8   2222 3222
      Canberra              7   1222 2322
      Hobart                7   1232 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 NOV : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   1132 3331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Nov     7    Quiet 
24 Nov    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 20 November 
and is current for interval 24-25 November. Coronal hole induced 
activity possible 24-25 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair          

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Nov   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
23 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
24 Nov   120    Slightly below predicted monthly values 



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