[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 163/117

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B9.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119

NOTICE: From Nov 18/2100UT to 19/1300UT 
(Nov 19/0800LT to 19/2400LT) realtime services provided by IPS 
Radio and Space Services will be disrupted. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   2112 0112
      Darwin                2   1102 0112
      Townsville            3   2112 1102
      Learmonth             4   2112 0123
      Canberra              3   2122 0002
      Hobart                3   2122 001-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 NOV : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   1011 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
20 Nov    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: A weak coronal hole is expected to induce a short period 
of activity 18-19 November. 
NOTICE: From Nov 18/2100UT to 19/1300UT 
(Nov 19/0800LT to 19/2400LT) realtime services provided by IPS 
Radio and Space Services will be disrupted. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 Nov   168

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 
19 Nov   130    Slightly below predicted monthly values 
20 Nov   130    Slightly below predicted monthly values 
NOTICE: From Nov 18/2100UT to 19/1300UT (Nov 19/0800LT 
to 19/2400LT) realtime services provided by IPS Radio and Space 
Services will be disrupted. 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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