[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Nov             17 Nov             18 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            155/109

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   2111 2012
      Darwin                3   2111 1012
      Townsville            4   2112 2012
      Learmonth             4   2111 2022
      Canberra              3   1-11 2011
      Hobart                3   2111 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 NOV : 
      Darwin                6   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart                7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1201 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Nov     6    Quiet 
17 Nov     6    Quiet 
18 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: NOTICE: From Nov 18/2100UT to 19/1300UT (Nov 19/0800LT 
to 19/2400LT) realtime services provided by IPS Radio and Space 
Services will be disrupted. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Nov   154

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: NOTICE: From Nov 18/2100UT to 19/1300UT (Nov 19/0800LT 
to 19/2400LT) realtime services provided by IPS Radio and Space 
Services will be disrupted. 


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