[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*    ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 150/105

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       17   3423 4333
      Darwin               16   2423 4334
      Townsville           17   2423 4433
      Learmonth            19   3423 4433
      Canberra             18   3433 4333
      Hobart               22   3524 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 NOV : 
      Darwin               43   (Unsettled)
      Townsville            6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            NA
      Canberra            130   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              138   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             41   4366 6433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov    25    Unsettled to active, with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
13 Nov    25    Unsettled to active, with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
14 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 10-12 November. A moderate shock 
was observed in the solar wind speed at 0402UT, with solar wind 
parameters indicative of the expected high speed coronal hole 
wind stream. A sudden impulse was observed in the geomagnetic 
field at 0423UT and ranged from ~60nT for Southern Australian 
regions to ~30nT for Northern Australian regions. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with the 
chance of minor storm periods. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Proton/PCA Event Began 8 11 2000 2345UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
13 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible over the 
next couple of days due to recent geomagnetic activity. Proton 
flux levels are declining and absorption in the polar cap regions 
is abating. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Nov   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed up to 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly absorption throughout the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov   100    Depressed 10-20% for northern Australian regions
                and depressed 15-30% at times for southern
                Australian regions.
13 Nov   115    Depressed 5-15% for northern Australian regions 
                and depressed 10-20% at times for southern
                Australian regions.
14 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values.

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 11 November 
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Mildly degraded HF 
conditions are possible over the next couple of days due to recent 
geomagnetic activity. Proton flux levels are declining and absorption 
in the polar cap regions is abating. 


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