[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN          MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1207UT  possible                  lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 180/133

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 450km/sec during 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) was southward (15nT) during the interval 00-12UT on 
07 Nov. A large transequatorial coronal hole is approaching the 
centre of the solar disk. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 07 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       20   3344 3345
      Darwin               20   3343 3255
      Townsville           21   3343 3355
      Learmonth            23   4334 3355
      Canberra             20   3344 3344
      Hobart               23   3354 4334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV : 
      Darwin               12   (Quiet)
      Townsville            6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            NA
      Canberra             45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              148   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             42   3436 6564     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov    15    Unsettled 
09 Nov    12    Unsettled to active 
10 Nov    35    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 10-12 November. Geomagnetic activity 
expected to decline. However, coronal hole induced activity expected 
around 10 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
10 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF communication expected to be 
recover today, with higher MUfs than yesterday. Some high latitudes 
sites may be slower to recover. A coronal hole induced disturbance 
is expected around 10 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Nov    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
10 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Northern region MUfs expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values. Southern region Aus/NZ MUFs expected to be about 
15% depressed early in UT day, recovering early in UT day. A 
return to degraded HF conditions are expected after 10 Nov. 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060