[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 178/131

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: A shock was observed in the solar wind around 0914UT 
with solarw in speed jumping from 500 to around 600 km/sec. Shock 
probably associated with recent solar mass ejection events. A 
large transequatorial coronal hole is visible in the eastern 
hemispher of the solar disk. A solar region in the south east 
quadrant appears moderately bright in xray imagery. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 06 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       31   2235 5555
      Darwin               29   2125 5555
      Townsville           31   2235 5556
      Learmonth            31   3225 5555
      Canberra             31   2235 5555
      Hobart               41   2336 5565
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 NOV : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            NA
      Canberra             18   (Quiet)
      Hobart               32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3311 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov    35    Active to minor storm 
08 Nov    15    Unsettled 
09 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for interval 7 November only. A sudden impulse 
of 35nT observed around 0949UT. Impulse associated with recent 
coronal mass ejection activity. Further geomagnetic activity 
expected during first half of UT day today. Coronal hole induced 
activity expected around 10 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor          
08 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF communication expected to be 
depressed and degraded for today, following overnight geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Nov   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
      Spread F observed southern region sites.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Absorption and Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov    80    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Nov   130    near predicted monthly values 
09 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for interval 7 November only. 


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