[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL: GREEN   MAG: YELLOW      ION: YELLOW
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 199/151

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            190/143

COMMENT: Growth rate in solar regions located in north east quadrant 
has slowed. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        2   1000 2111
      Darwin                3   1201 1111
      Townsville            2   1000 2122
      Learmonth             2   1000 2122
      Canberra              2   1000 2111
      Hobart                2   1000 2110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 NOV : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   2101 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov    16    usttled to active, with the chance of minor storm 
                periods. 
05 Nov    20    Active, with the chance of minor storm periods. 
06 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for interval 4-5 November. Increased activity 
expected second half of UT day 04 Nov, due to recent coronal 
mass ejection events. Shock arrival window estimate is from around 
10UT on 04 Nov to 15UT on 05 Nov. Shock(s) are expected to be 
weak. Recurrence also suggests very mild increase in geomagnetic 
activity 06 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF communication should be initially normal 
for today becoming degraded late in UT day due to anticipated 
arrival of recent coronal mass ejections. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Nov   177

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
05 Nov   130    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Nov   130    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions initially expected for today. Mildly 
disturbed conditions are expected for late 4-5 Nov due to recent 
solar mass ejections. Effects should be confined to southern 
Aus/NZ region. 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060