[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 204/155

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            210/161            205/156

COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from around 480 km/sec to 
380km/sec over UT day. One solar region emerged in the north-east 
quadrant of the solar disk showed growth. Flare potential may 
increase is the region continues to develop. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        7   3231 0222
      Darwin                9   4231 1223
      Townsville            9   223- ----
      Learmonth             8   4221 0222
      Canberra              7   3231 0222
      Hobart                7   3231 0222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 NOV : 
      Darwin               20   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               48   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3223 2433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions expected over next few 
days. Recurrence suggests mild increase in geomagnetic activity 
06 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Some absorption observed at polar regions, due to recent 
enhanced proton fluxes. Good HF conditions expected next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Nov   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 134

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov   145    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values 



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