[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 198/150

GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Dec             20 Dec             21 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            195/147            190/143


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   2333 2323
      Darwin                -   ---- ----
      Townsville           13   2243 2332
      Learmonth             9   2223 -324
      Canberra             10   2332 2322
      Hobart               10   2332 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 DEC : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart                4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1212 3331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Dec    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 18 December 
and is current for interval 21-22 December. A small full halo 
CME was observed in LASCO images. This has been associated with 
a C7/DF flare 18/1111Z region 9269 N11W06 and a DSF S50E01. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 Dec   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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