[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 138/92

GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Dec             10 Dec             11 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 08 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       16   4333 3333
      Darwin               18   4333 4334
      Townsville           16   3333 433-
      Learmonth            16   4333 3333
      Canberra             16   4333 3333
      Hobart               18   4343 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 DEC : 
      Darwin               40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            18   (Quiet)
      Canberra             96   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              106   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   2333 4323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Dec    20    Unsettled, chance of active and possible minor 
                storm periods. 
10 Dec    16    Unsettled to active 
11 Dec    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 4 December 
and is current for interval 7-10 December. The Earth is currently 
under the influence of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream 
which is producing mostly unsettled to active conditions. The 
activity is expected to persist for the next couple of days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced activity has produced mildly degraded 
HF conditions which are expected to continue for the next couple 
of days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 Dec   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Dec   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
10 Dec   110    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
11 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 8 December 
and is current for interval 9-10 December. Coronal hole induced 
activity has produced mildly degraded HF conditions which are 
expected to continue for the next couple of days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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