[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0925UT  possible                  lower  Mid East/Indian
 M1/--    2038UT  possible                  lower  East Pacific/
                                                   North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 192/144

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            180/133

COMMENT: A solar region (SEC 9246) is showing growth and futher 
M class flares appear likely. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2222 1123
      Darwin                5   2222 1123
      Townsville            6   2222 122-
      Learmonth             8   3322 1123
      Canberra              8   3322 1124
      Hobart                5   2222 1113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 NOV : 
      Darwin                8   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               16   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             52   5765 6423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec    12    Unsettled 
02 Dec    15    Unsettled, chance of active conditions. 
03 Dec    10    Unsettled 
COMMENT: There is an outside chance of an impulse during the 
first half of the uT day on 02 Dec, from a recent Type II. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Fair           Fair           
PCA Event : No event.
 
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected for today. High latitudes 
may be initially degraded today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Nov    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region and Northern Region:
      Near predicted monthly values, to 15% depressed,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Spread F local night hours.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed. Absorption observed early in UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
02 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
03 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 



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