[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 23 March 24 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (23 MARCH) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
23 Mar   129    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.1    0134UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  M1.2    0434UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    0655UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.4    0709UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.1    0739UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1129UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    1247UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.9    1337UT  possible   lower  European
  M5.2    1352UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 23 03 2024 0805UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      138
Mar      111
Apr      112


2. FORECAST (24 MARCH - 26 MARCH)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
24 Mar    90    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 initially, then depressed 20-30%
25 Mar    80    Poor-fair        Depressed 20-30%    
26 Mar    75    Fair             Depressed 20-30%, possibly returning 
                                 to near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 30 was issued 
on 23 March and is current for 25-26 Mar. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 31 was issued on 23 March and is current for 24-26 Mar. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on 
UT day 23-Mar were near predicted values mostly; with some depressions 
in the southern regions and enhancements in the northern regions. 
Spread-F was observed at southern Australian sites such as Hobart 
and Perth. A HF fadeout may have affected lower frequencies of 
radio communication between 23/0108 - 0512 UT in the Australian 
region, with the most impacts likely around 0134 UT.

 MUFs are 
expected to become depressed by 20-30% by the beginning of UT 
day 25-Mar, with depressions continuing over 25-26 Mar due to 
current and expected geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts 
are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au