[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 22 January 24 issued 2331 UT on 22 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
22 Jan   135    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0622UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    1924UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.0    1947UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.4    2121UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      110
Jan      106
Feb      105


2. FORECAST (23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
23 Jan   115    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced.
24 Jan   110    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values    
25 Jan    90    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 6 was issued 
on 22 January and is current for 23-24 Jan. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 8 was issued on 22 January and is current for 23-25 Jan. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Jan were near 
predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region. Sporadic-E 
was observed at Brisbane and Cocos Islands during local night 
hours. Many sites on the east coast also had sporadic-E around 
local dusk hours, although it was very brief. 

MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 23-Jan, 
but may become up to 20% depressed over 24-25 Jan as there is
 geomagnetic activity expected on these days. Some minor 
enhancements are possible on 23-Jan. The biggest depressions 
are likely going to be on 25-Jan. Isolated shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au