[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 22 February 24 issued 2329 UT on 22 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

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SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
22 Feb   145    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.9 21/2307UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  X1.6    0632UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M4.7    2046UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  X6.3    2234UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      144
Feb      108
Mar      108


2. FORECAST (23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
23 Feb   130    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced
24 Feb   130    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced    
25 Feb    85    Fair-normal      Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 
22 February and is current for 22-24 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Feb were near predicted monthly values to 
25% enhanced in the Australian region. A strong HF fadeout was 
observed in association with the X6 flare 22/2234UT impacting 
the southwest pacific region. Further HF fadeouts are expected. 
Ionospheric amplitude scintillation was observed 22/1346-1410UT 
at Weipa. Weak phase scintillation was observed at Darwin and 
Weipa 22/1100-1500UT. Sporadic E was observed during local night 
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced over 23-24 Feb. Moderately degraded HF conditions 
are expected on 25-Feb for the southern Australian region due 
to an anticipated CME component arrival. Northern Australian 
region MUFs are expected to remain near normal.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au