[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 15 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Feb   143    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    1707UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0755UT 12/02, Ended at 1930UT 14/02

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      144
Feb      108
Mar      108


2. FORECAST (16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Feb   145    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced
17 Feb   145    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced    
18 Feb   145    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 
14 February and is current for 15-16 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Feb were near predicted monthly values to 
15% enhanced in the Australian region. Scintillation was observed 
at Darwin between 16/1552-1620 UT. Brief sporadic-E was observed 
at most Australian sites during local early morning hours. MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced 
over 16-18 Feb. Isolated shortwave fadeouts re possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au