[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 05 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 05 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (05 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
05 Nov    96    Poor           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    1143UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.7    1432UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      130
Nov      100
Dec      98


2. FORECAST (06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
06 Nov    95    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 45% depressed
07 Nov    75    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 25% depressed    
08 Nov    80    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 10-20% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 110 was issued on 5 
November and is current for 5-7 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 05-Nov became depressed 
by 45% by the end of the day. HF communication conditions in 
the Australian region were heavily degraded during local night 
hours. Scintillation was observed between 1024-1414 UT at both 
Darwin and Weipa. Conditions may recover somewhat during local 
daylight hours on 06-Nov, but further degradations and depressions 
of 10-30% are expected by local night hours. Depressions of or 
around this magnitude are expected to continue over 07-08 Nov 
as further geomagnetic activity is expected due to a co-rotating 
interaction region ahead of a coronal hole wind stream. Further 
equatorial scintillation events are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au