[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 20 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 20 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (20 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
20 May   112    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0702UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M6.5    0732UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.6    1054UT  possible   lower  European
  M8.9    1235UT  probable   lower  European
  M5.6    1500UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    1903UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M5.2    2306UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      87
Jun      88


2. FORECAST (21 MAY - 23 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
21 May    90    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed
22 May   105    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced    
23 May   110    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 
19 May and is current for 20-22 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 20-May in the Australian region were near predicted 
monthly values to 30% enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart, 
and degraded conditions were observed at Brisbane, Darwin and 
Cocos Islands. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values on 21-May with some mild depressions, then enhanced by up 
to 20% over 22-23 May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au