[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 08 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 08 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (08 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
08 May   111    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5 07/2234UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.3    2025UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1220UT 08/05, Ended at 1405UT 08/05
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 08 05 2023 1435UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      84
Jun      85


2. FORECAST (09 MAY - 11 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
09 May   100    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
10 May    90    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
11 May    90    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 8-May were 
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Northern Australian 
region, with enhancements of up to 20% observed in the Southern 
Australian region. Spread-F was observed at Darwin and Hobart 
during local night. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra, 
Perth, Norfolk Island and small amounts were observed at Townsville 
and Learmonth during local evening and night. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values on 9-May. Depressions are 
possible over 10-11 May due to an anticipated impact from a CME 
first observed on 7-Apr. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au