[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 30 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (30 JULY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
30 Jul   122    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0814UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0035UT 29/07, Ended at 1615UT 30/07

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      98
Jul      91
Aug      88


2. FORECAST (31 JULY - 02 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
31 Jul   105    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced
01 Aug    80    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 10-15% depressed    
02 Aug    90    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 10-15% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 
29 July and is current for 29-31 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 30-Jul were near predicted values to 15% enhanced 
in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed in Brisbane, 
Canberra and Hobart during local night hours, particularly around 
1600-1900 UT. Strong range and frequency spread was observed 
in Niue during local night hours. Scintillation was observed 
at Niue between 0733-0750 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
values to 15% enhanced on 31-Jul, then tending towards mild depressions 
of 10-15% over 01-02 Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic activity 
from a CME first observed on 28-Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au