[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 15 January 23 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Jan   120    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M6/--    0342UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      84
Jan      71
Feb      72


2. FORECAST (16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Jan    60    Fair-normal      Depressed 15-20% southern Australia, 
                                 Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values northern Australia.
17 Jan   100    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
18 Jan   100    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 
14 January and is current for 16-18 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications 
Warning 8 was issued on 15 January and is current for 16 Jan 
only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region 
on UT day 15-Jan were near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced. 
Southern Australian region MUFs are 15-20% depressed after local 
dawn this morning following mild overnight geomagnetic activity 
and northern Australian region MUFs are currently enhanced 15-20%. 
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced over 17-18 Jan. Isolated Shortwave fadeouts are 
possible. A HF fadeout observed was observed in association with 
M6 flare at 15/0342UT, impacting lower HF frequencies.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au