[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 10 January 23 issued 2331 UT on 10 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (10 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
10 Jan   126    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.2    0016UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.1    0216UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.7    0242UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    1108UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.4    1728UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.2    1748UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  X1.1    2247UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      84
Jan      71
Feb      72


2. FORECAST (11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
11 Jan   105    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
12 Jan   105    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
13 Jan   105    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 
10 January and is current for 11-13 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 10-Jan were near predicted 
monthly values to 30% enhanced during local night hours. Strong 
sporadic E was observed at Norfolk Island and Townsville. MUFs 
are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values to 
15% enhanced over 11-13 Jan. Some southern Australian region 
sites are currently depressed 10-15% after local dawn which is 
not expected to persist. There is a chance of mild degradation 
in HF conditions during local night over 11-12 Jan. A HF fadeout 
impacting lower frequencies was observed 10/2245-2300UT for east 
coast Australia. Further shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au