[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 27 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 27 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (27 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
27 Feb    90    Fair           

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2100UT 25/02, Ended at 1830UT 26/02
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1935UT 26/02, Ended at 2005UT 26/02
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2035UT 26/02, Ended at 2245UT 26/02

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      76


2. FORECAST (28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
28 Feb    80    Fair             Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar    95    Normal-fair      Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
02 Mar    95    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 26 
February and is current for 27-28 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Northern Australian region on UT day 27-Feb were 
between 15% depressed and 15% enhanced. MUFs in the southern 
Australian region were near monthly predicted values to 35% depressed, 
with the strongest depressions occurring at Hobart during local 
night. The depressed HF conditions are due to ongoing geomagnetic 
activity due to a combination of coronal hole high speed wind 
stream effects and two CME impacts on 27-Feb and 28-Feb. Significant 
sporadic-E was observed at Norfolk Island and Niue during local 
night and Brisbane during local dawn. Spread F was observed at 
Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to 20% depressed over 28-Feb, due to ongoing geomagnetic 
activity. The strongest depressions are expected at higher latitudes. 
MUFs are expected to recover to near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced over 1-2 Mar as geomagnetic activity wanes, with 
mild depressions possible on 1-Mar in the southern Australian 
region. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au