[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 19 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 19 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (19 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
19 Feb   132    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-85%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      76


2. FORECAST (20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
20 Feb   120    Normal-Fair      About 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
21 Feb    95    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
22 Feb    95    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 
17 February and is current for 18-20 Feb. ASWFC Preliminary HF 
Communications Warning 19 was issued on 17 February and is current 
for 19-21 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on 19-Feb were strongly enhanced. Spread F was observed 
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15% 
enhanced on 20-Feb. The anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity 
on 19-Feb did not eventuate, and the subsequent mild depressions 
forecast for 20-Feb are now not expected. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values on 21-22 Feb, with mild depressions 
possible due to anticipated geomagnetic activity caused the anticipated 
arrival of a CME. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au