[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 11 February 23 issued 2331 UT on 11 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (11 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
11 Feb   121    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3 10/2241UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.3    0808UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    1058UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1134UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1210UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    1223UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1240UT  possible   lower  European
  X1.2    1549UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.4    1723UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      76


2. FORECAST (12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
12 Feb   100    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
13 Feb   100    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
14 Feb   100    Normal-fair      Near to 15% predicted monthly 
                                 values, becoming degraded late 
                                 in UT day.   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 
10 February and is current for 11-13 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values 
to 40% enhanced. Occasional mild spread F was observed during 
local night hours at Hobart and Perth. Southeast Australian ionosonde 
stations are showing mildly depressed MUFs after local dawn this 
morning which are not expected to persist. MUFs are generally 
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. 
Shortwave fadeouts are probable. Degraded HF conditions for the 
southern Australian region may be experienced 14-15 Feb due to 
the anticipated arrival of a CME.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au