[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 14 December 23 issued 2342 UT on 14 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

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SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Dec   102    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.8    0744UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.3    1348UT  possible   lower  European
  X2.8    1702UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      114
Dec      100
Jan      98


2. FORECAST (15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Dec   100    Normal           Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec   100    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values    
17 Dec    90    Fair             Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 15 to 30%   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 129 was issued on 
14 December and is current for 14-16 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values in the Australian region 
on UT day 14-Dec. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values over 15-16 Dec, with mildly degraded HF conditions possible 
for the southern Australian region during local night hours on 
16-Dec, due to an anticipated weak CME arrival. A further degradation 
in ionospheric conditions is expected for the southern Australian 
region during 17-18 Dec due to anticipated component arrivals 
of CME activity observed on 14-Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au