[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 01 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (01 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
01 Dec    95    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0441UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    2121UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      114
Dec      98
Jan      95


2. FORECAST (02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
02 Dec    60    Fair             15 to 35% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
03 Dec    90    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
04 Dec    75    Normal-fair      0 to 15% below predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 123 was issued on 1 
December and is current for 2-3 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were initially near predicted monthly values in the Australian 
region on UT day 01-Dec. MUF depressions of 35-50% have since 
been observed after local dawn due to recent geomagnetic activity. 
MUFs are expected to be 15-35% depressed on UT day 02-Dec due 
to ongoing CME effects, before returning to near predicted monthly 
values on 03-Dec. Depressions of 15% are possible on 04-Dec due 
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Isolated minor 
shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au