[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 31 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (31 JULY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
31 Jul   112    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7    0900UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0035UT 29/07, Ended at 1615UT 30/07

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      98
Jul      91
Aug      88


2. FORECAST (01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
01 Aug   100    Fair             Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 15%
02 Aug    90    Normal           Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 15%    
03 Aug   115    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-Jul were 
near predicted monthly values with enhancements of up to 20% 
observed in the southern Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed 
at Cocos Islands, Niue and Darwin during local night hours. Spread 
F was observed at Hobart. Scintillation was observed at Niue 
between 31/0808UT and 31/0908UT. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values to 15% depressed over 1-2 Aug, particularly 
in the southern Australian region, due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity from a CME first observed on 28-Jul. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 3-Aug. 
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au