[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 16 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 Sep    87    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.9    0949UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M6.2    1559UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      53
Sep      68
Oct      69


2. FORECAST (17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 Sep    80    Normal-fair      About 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
18 Sep    65    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
19 Sep    65    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Sep were 
mildly enhanced to near predicted monthly values, particularly 
during local night, for most sites. Ionospheric scintillation 
occurred at Darwin for two periods during local night, at 16/1158UT 
and 16/1228UT. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near to 
15% above predicted monthly values on 17-Sep. Regional MUFs are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 18-19 Sep, 
with mild depressions possible during local nights hours due 
to the combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream effects 
and an anticipated glancing blow from a CME first observed 16-Sep.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au