[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 15 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Dec    98    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    0137UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.4    0707UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    0758UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.5    1017UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1611UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    1644UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.1    1656UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M5.7    2240UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      77
Dec      70
Jan      70


2. FORECAST (16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Dec   105    Normal           10 to 20% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
17 Dec    95    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced    
18 Dec    95    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 100 was issued on 
14 December and is current for 15-17 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 15-Dec were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced, particularly at 
local night. Sporadic-E was observed at most Australian sites 
during local night. MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted 
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 16-18 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au