[Ips-dhfpr] SWS Daily HF Prop Report - 28 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 28 Oct 2021

[rwc]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (28 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
28 Oct    37    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/--    1535UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 10 2021 0430UT and is in progress
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 10 2021 0325UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33


2. FORECAST (29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
29 Oct    35    Normal           Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct    50    Fair             Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
31 Oct    25    Fair             Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 15 to 25%   

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 28 
October and is current for 29-31 Oct. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT day 28 October were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Mild enhancements were observed in the Northern Australian 
region during local night. MUFs are likely to be near predicted 
monthly values on 29 October. Mild enhancements are possible 
on 30 October. Mild to moderate depressions are likely on 31 
October. Shortwave fadeouts are likely due to possible M- and 
X-class flares.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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