[Ips-dhfpr] SWS Daily HF Prop Report - 01 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (01 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
01 Oct    -4    Fair           

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      34
Nov      34


2. FORECAST (02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
02 Oct     0    Normal-fair      15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
03 Oct    10    Fair-normal      Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
04 Oct    15    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were strongly depressed over most Australian 
regions throughout the UT day 1 October. The HF depression even 
extended into the equatorial regions. These depression are associated 
with the observed disturbed geomagnetic conditions driven by 
a very large positive polarity coronal hole. Slightly improved 
MUFs, though still near depressed levels compared to monthly 
predicted values, are expected for the next two days (2-3 October) 
as the ionosphere slowly replenishes from the aftermath of series 
of substorms associated with the coronal hole.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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