[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 February 16 issued 2352 UT on 16 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 Feb    80    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51


2. FORECAST (17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 Feb    50    Normal-fair      Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values
18 Feb    55    Normal-fair      Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
19 Feb    60    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued 
on 13 February and is current for 16-17 Feb. IPS SWF HF Communications 
Warning 10 was issued on 16 February and is current for 16-17 
Feb. Observed MUF's were near predicted monthly values over the 
last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs observed for low latitude stations 
Depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ regions observed as well as 
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Continued 
elevated geomagnetic activity expected for the next 24-48 hours 
should see MUF depressions of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ and possibly 
for Northern AUS regions. Continued disturbed ionospheric conditions 
for Antarctic regions and MUFs near predicted monthly values 
for low-latitude/equatorial regions. From 19Feb ionospheric support 
expected to slowly return to near predicted monthly values.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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