[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 06 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 7 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (06 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
06 Nov    36    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65


2. FORECAST (07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
07 Nov    35    Fair             15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
08 Nov    20    Fair             20 to 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
09 Nov    20    Fair             20 to 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for 6-8 Nov. Observed MUF's for the Australasia 
regions on the UT day 06 Nov were about 25% below the predicted 
monthly values. Strong geomagnetic activity on 03-05 Nov associated 
with the equatorial coronal hole has caused this MUF degradation. 
MUFs are expected to remain poor for the next 3 days due the 
combined effect of 1) the arrival of the CME at Earth associated 
with M3.7 flare from Nov 04/1352 UT and 2) the expected arrival 
of high speed solar streams from a very large recurrent positive 
northern coronal hole late on UT day Nov 8.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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