[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 04 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 5 10:30:32 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
04 Nov    22    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    0326UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.6    1203UT  possible   lower  European
  M3.7    1354UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% throughout the day
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65


2. FORECAST (05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
05 Nov    25    Fair             20 to 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
06 Nov    40    Normal-fair      Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
07 Nov    40    Normal           Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Observed MUF's for the UT day 04 
Nov were about 20% below the predicted monthly values in the 
high and mid latitudes regions. There is a chance of isolated 
shortwave fadeouts for the next two days due to active sunspot 
regions (Region 2443 and 2445). Strong geomagnetic activity during 
the last 24 hours has caused this MUF degradation. As anticipated 
the MUF depression occurred first in the high latitude regions 
and is expected to expand into mid-latitude regions within the 
next 24 hours. Depressed MUF conditions are expected to last 
for few days (5-7 Nov).

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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