[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 04 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 5 10:30:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (04 NOVEMBER)
Date T index Conditions
04 Nov 22 Normal
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0326UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.6 1203UT possible lower European
M3.7 1354UT possible lower European
MUFs:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% throughout the day
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
PCA Event : No event.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
2. FORECAST (05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
05 Nov 25 Fair 20 to 30% below predicted monthly
values
06 Nov 40 Normal-fair Depressed 15%/near predicted
monthly values
07 Nov 40 Normal Depressed 15%/near predicted
monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 2 November
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Observed MUF's for the UT day 04
Nov were about 20% below the predicted monthly values in the
high and mid latitudes regions. There is a chance of isolated
shortwave fadeouts for the next two days due to active sunspot
regions (Region 2443 and 2445). Strong geomagnetic activity during
the last 24 hours has caused this MUF degradation. As anticipated
the MUF depression occurred first in the high latitude regions
and is expected to expand into mid-latitude regions within the
next 24 hours. Depressed MUF conditions are expected to last
for few days (5-7 Nov).
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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