[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 17 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 17 Aug 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 18 09:30:46 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (17 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
17 Aug    44    Fair           

Flares: B class flares

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78


2. FORECAST (18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
18 Aug    35    Normal           20 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
19 Aug    45    Normal           15 to 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
20 Aug    50    Normal           Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
throughout the Australian region during 17 August. The conditions 
were more depressed for the mid-latitude stations than the low 
latitude stations. For example, the daily T index was 56 for 
Cocos Island and 20 for Norfolk Island. The conditions are expected 
to be even more depressed during 18 Aug. These depressions (16 
to 18 August) are the after-effects of the CME which arrived 
at Earth on 15 August. The conditions are expected to slowly 
trend back towards mildly depressed conditions relative to the 
long-term monthly prediction of T=80.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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