[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Aug 2015

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Aug    50    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78


2. FORECAST (16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Aug    40    Normal-fair      10 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
17 Aug    60    Normal           Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
18 Aug    60    Normal           Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 15 August 
and is current for 16 Aug only. MUFs have ranged between predicted 
monthly values and moderate depressions. Expect moderate depressions 
today, 16 August, due to the geomagnetic storm currently in progress. 
Expect continued depressed MUFs 17-18 August due to low EUV resulting 
from low sunspot numbers for this period in the solar cycle. 
Noted sporadic E at the Cocos Island station between 16-22UT. 
Noted spread F at Perth (14-19 UT) and Hobart (11-20 UT).

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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