[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 19 October 14 issued 2334 UT on 19 Oct 2014

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (19 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
19 Oct    90    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.1    0506UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83


2. FORECAST (20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
20 Oct   105    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
21 Oct   105    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
22 Oct    90    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over most of 
the regions. Expected to continue at or slightly above median 
MUFs for next 2 days due to to high levels of ionising EUV flux. 
Some isolated depressions are possible during day 3, 22 October 
in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. There 
was a brief short-wave fadeout (SWF) recorded at some locations 
from the long duration X-class Flare from large spot group AR2192 
at ~0445UT on the 19th. Short wave fadeouts possible for the 
forecast period with a reasonable chance of M and isolated X 
flares from AR2192.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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