[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 14 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 15 10:30:44 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Feb   137    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    0257UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75


2. FORECAST (15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Feb   130    Fair-poor        Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
16 Feb    90    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 20 to 30%    
17 Feb   100    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued 
on 13 February and is current for 15-17 Feb. IPS SWF HF Communications 
Warning 9 was issued on 14 February and is current for 15-16 
Feb. The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal 
to enhanced over the last 24 hours. MUFs were generally above 
predicted monthly values at most locations. MUFs are expected 
to continue to be enhanced 15-Feb, however an expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity may result in degraded HF conditions 
15-Feb and some MUF depressions to 30% on 16-Feb, particularly 
at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations. Further short-wave fadeouts 
are likely over the next 2 days.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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