[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 Oct 2013

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 Oct    77    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3 15/2337UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70


2. FORECAST (17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 Oct    80    Normal           Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct    80    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
19 Oct    80    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 15 
October and is current for 15-17 Oct. Max Usable Frequencies 
were near predicted monthly values over most of the region with 
low variability as geomagnetic activity subsides. Expected to 
continue at or slightly above median MUFs for next 3 days due 
to relatively strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) from 10 sunspot 
regions on the disc. There was a brief short-wave fadeout (SWF) 
in the SW Pacific (recorded at Niue) up to 9MHz from a low M 
class flare from spot group AR1865 at ~2340UT on the 15th. AR1865 
has further potential for low M class flares.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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