[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 July 12 issued 2356 UT on 15 Jul 2012

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 JULY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Jul    87    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
      Depressed 15% 14-19UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night with periods
      of spread-F conditions.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable depressions to 15% during local day.
      Variable enhancements to 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionospheric support with occasional MUF
      enhancements.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77


2. FORECAST (16 JULY - 18 JULY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Jul    75    Normal           Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10-20%.
17 Jul    60    Normal           Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10-20%.    
18 Jul    60    Normal           Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10-20%.   

COMMENT: Variable propagation conditions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions with moderate day-time depressions and occasionally 
strong night-time enhancements. Continuing poor ionospheric support 
Antarctic region. Proton event ended early in the UT day and 
no significant absorption observed. Chance of isolated short-wave 
fadeout events. Possible ongoing disturbance day one due to CME 
effects from the X-class flare observed late on Jul 12. As geomagnetic 
disturbances decline, expect a return to lower EUV solar radiation 
leading to below average MUF's.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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