[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 14 July 12 issued 2353 UT on 14 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 15 09:53:07 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 JULY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Jul    56    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0459UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Sporadic-E 18-20UT at Brisbane. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
      Minor absorption observed after 17UT due to 
      elevated proton fluxes.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77


2. FORECAST (15 JULY - 17 JULY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Jul    55    Normal           Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10-30%.
16 Jul    55    Normal           Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10-30%.    
17 Jul    60    Normal           Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10-20%.   

COMMENT: Variable propagation conditions observed Equatorial/Aus 
regions with moderate night-time MUF depressions following onset 
of an anticipated solar wind shock event. Continuing poor ionospheric 
support Antarctic region with mild absorption observed due to 
shock-related proton deposition. Chance of isolated short-wave 
fadeout events. Possible ongoing disturbance days one and two 
due to CME impact from the X-class flare observed late on Jul 
12.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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