[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 25 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 26 09:36:29 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (25 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
25 Sep    93    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 24/2359UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M4.5    0233UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M7.4    0451UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    0706UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.1    0849UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.5    0937UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.7    1533UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    1619UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.2    1658UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      12-17 UT. No data 18-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 12-17UT.
      Enhanced to 30% 05-10 and 19-22UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      16-18UT at Darwin. Enhancements to 30% 12-15 UT at
      Darwin and 00-01, 09-13, 21-23UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere at high latitudes. Mostly near predicted
      monthly values to 40% enhanced. Proton event in progress,
      increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 09 2011 2250UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62
2. FORECAST (26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
26 Sep    80    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced. 
27 Sep    70    Normal           Near predicted monthly values. 
                                 Possible occasional depressions 
                                 to 20%..     
28 Sep    80    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced.    

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 23 September 
and is current for interval 24-26 September (SWFs) . With solar 
activity increasing, there is the chance of sudden disruptions 
to communications (short wave fade-outs). 

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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