[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 18 February 11

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (18 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
18 Feb    57    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.6    1011UT  probable   lower  European
  M1.0    1027UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1303UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1408UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.3    2105UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  38
2. FORECAST (19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
19 Feb    25    Normal-fair      depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
20 Feb    35    Normal-fair      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
21 Feb    45    Normal-fair      near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial and 
Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day and night over the last 
24 hours. Depressed MUFs observed for Antarctic regions. Increased 
geomagnetic activity over the last 24 hours is expected to cause 
variable ionospheric conditions with MUF depressions of 10%-30% 
for mid to high latitudes with possible enhancements for mid 
to low latitudes due to high solar activity from current active 
regions. Tending towards mostly normal HF conditions for 20Feb-21Feb 
as the effects of the geomagentic storm conditions from yesterday 
abate. 
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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