[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 February 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 16 10:41:30 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Feb    46    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X2.3    0156UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  38
2. FORECAST (16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Feb    45    Normal           near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb    25    Fair             depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
18 Feb    25    Fair             depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over Australian region 
for the last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs observed at IPS Niue 
station during local day and night and depressed MUFs of ~15% 
for Cocos Is. Normal ionospheric support for Northern AUS and 
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Notable short wave fadeout observed 
between 0155UT and 0220UT for the east coast of Australia following 
the large X2.2 xray flare. Isolated depressions for Antarctic 
regions. MUFs are at expected to be near predicted monthly values 
with enhanced conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions for 
16Feb. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected from 17Feb-18Feb
with depressed MUFs for mid to high latitudes of 10%-30% predicited 
and disturbed conditions for high latitudes. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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