[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 13 October 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 14 10:36:32 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (13 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
13 Oct    -3    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30
2. FORECAST (14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
14 Oct    15    Normal           5 to 10% below predicted monthly 
                                 values 
15 Oct    25    Normal           0 to 5% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
16 Oct    20    Normal           about 5% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 13 October 
and is current for interval 13-14 October. MUFs at mid and low 
latitudes continued to be strongly depressed over the UT day 
as a result of the brief geomagnetic disturbance early in the 
local morning of the 12th. Recovery to near monthly values in 
the next day should be helped by low geomagnetic activity and 
a new active region on the solar disc with more ionising radiation. 
Another CME may strike a glancing blow during local day on the 
15th with possible ionospheric depressions. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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