[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 27 January 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 28 10:07:13 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (27 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
27 Jan   -16    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   6
2. FORECAST (28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
28 Jan   -20    Normal           near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20% 
29 Jan   -20    Normal           near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20%     
30 Jan   -10    Normal           near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 0 to 10%    
COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events again observed throughout 
the region, often strong blanketing Es that obscured the F-region. 
The Es ocurrence appears a little less then previous days. Spread 
F was also widely observed. The slight F region enhancement caused 
by the Unsettled-Active geomagnetic conditions from the CIR on 
the 25th died away during this UT day and MUFs were depressed 
in all latitudes, particularly during the local day. At mid-latitudes 
a mild post-dusk enhancement was observed at most stations but 
this only brought the foF2 to monthly average levels. There were 
more significant local depressions and enhancements in the equatorial 
region, despite the lack of strong geomagnetic activity. These 
are likely caused by high altitude (300km) thermospheric winds 
and a strong enhancement with a near doubling of foF2 was seen 
to propagate west from Niue (02UT) through Darwin (03UT) to Cocos 
Is (05UT). Continuing Sporadic-E events seem likely from Equatorial 
to S.Aus/NZ regions. Expect MUFs to continue below monthly averages 
due to lack of sunspot activity for a couple of days. The next 
coronal hole may slightly alleviate this in three or four days 
time. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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