[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 14 December 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Dec     0    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
slightly below predicted monthly values

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 12 2006 0305UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  10
2. FORECAST (15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Dec   -40    Fair-poor        about 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values 
16 Dec   -20    Fair             about 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
17 Dec    -2    Fair-normal      Near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 14 December 
and is current for interval 14-15 December (SWFs) . HF conditions 
and MUFS were normal throughout the UT day at low and mid latitudes 
until around 14 UT. Ionospheric support at high latitudes has 
remained very poor due to the effects of the current proton event 
(PCA). A short wave fadeout occurred between 2216 UT and 2330UT 
in all Australasian regions but particularly in eastern Australian 
regions and New Zealand due to a X1.6 flare which occurred at 
2216 UT. A complete HF fadeout was observed in ionograms over 
eastern Australasian regions betwen 2216UT and 2330UT. Isolated 
cases of sporadic E were observed over all Australasian regions 
degrading HF communications between 4 UT and 20 UT. With the 
arrival of a CME at around 14 UT and the onset of a minor ionospheric 
storm, MUFS across all Australasian regions have shown minor 
depressions. MUFS in all regions are expected to experience further 
depressions as the current geomagnetic disturbance intensifies. 
Major depressions are expected particurly during local night 
time hours. MUFS are expected to return to normal in approximately 
72 hours. 
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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