[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 09 September 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
09 Sep    24    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6 08/2306UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0219UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    0237UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X1.2    0300UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
  M6.2    0550UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X3.6    0959UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M1.9    1751UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  X6.2    2004UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 09 2005 0235UT and 
is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24
2. FORECAST (10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
10 Sep    20    Normal-fair      near predicted monthly values 
                                 /depressed 5 to 10% 
11 Sep    15    Normal-fair      near predicted monthly values 
                                 /depressed 5 to 15%     
12 Sep    20    Normal-fair      near predicted monthly values 
                                 /depressed 5 to 10%    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 
7 September and is current for interval 8-10 September (SWFs).
Due to a good possibility of strong flare activities from a
very active region, short wave fadeouts may be observed during 
the day time during in the next few days. Also minor to moderate 
depressions in MUFs may also be observed in Aus/NZ regions during 
the next three days due to an anticipated rise in the geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period. 
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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