[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 19 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (19 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
19 Jan     4    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.7    0731UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X1.4    0824UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M1.6    1540UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and 
	    is in progress (impacts transpolar HF circuits).

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32
2. FORECAST (20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
20 Jan    10    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
21 Jan    30    Fair             near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20%     
22 Jan    15    Normal           depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 17 January 
and is current for interval 18-20 January (SWFs) . Southern Aus/NZ 
MUFs very depressed yesterday. Northern Australia MUFs (Darwin 
Townsville) and Vanimo PNG were depressed by up to 50% at times 
during the interval 03-06UT. MUFs are expected to be better today 
with the lack of overnight geomagnetic activity. However, some 
sites may be depressed 15% after local dawn. Another degraded 
period is expected late 21 to 22 Jan. 
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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